[Jamie Glazov, moderator]: . . . Please tell me that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is not a realistic scenario.
[Steve Schippert]: It is quite realistic, I am afraid. The fall of the Musharraf government - and with it, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal - to a murky cabal of the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the ISI and other Islamist fellow travelers would be a horrifying potential turn of events. As I have said, the face of the conflict we think we know would change in horrific fashion overnight. . . . [T]he consequences would be so grave that it must be considered soberly and with greater urgency than that currently afforded the Iranian nuclear crisis.
What we know is that there are elements of Musharraf's government (military and intelligence) that are sympathetic to al-Qaeda and/or the Taliban. . . . [T]he Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance is believed to have amassed combined-forces strength of about 200,000 fighters throughout the FATA and NWFP region.
In the end, one bullet or blast potentially separates the various Islamist groups from the 30 to 50 nuclear warheads in Pakistan's arsenal and the creation of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
In an immediate aftermath, India is most at risk. Perhaps this had a hand in the recent agreement reached between India and the Musharraf government to ensure communications between the two rivals in order to 'avoid an accidental nuclear exchange.' It surely is an urgent concern. . . .
Musharraf is in a rather precarious position. [Ask him] to do too much and his actions may inspire an all-out insurgency shifted toward Islamabad rather than Kabul.
[Thomas] Joscelyn: . . . Predicting Musharraf’s future, as well as the future of Pakistan, is fraught with uncertainties. But the consequences of a nuclear-armed Pakistan falling to al Qaeda and its Islamist allies are so dire that there is no more important issue today. . . . [L]et me lay out three concrete ways the tenuous situation in Pakistan impacts the current “war on terror.”
The first has to do with the ability of so-called “al Qaeda central” to orchestrate terrorist attacks. Numerous reports indicate that senior al Qaeda officials operate out of the mountainous border region separating Pakistan and Afghanistan. And plots around the world have been traced to their [doorstep]. (On a side note: There is also a substantial body of evidence indicating that senior al Qaeda officials continue to operate from Iran as well.) . . . Initially, some analysts tried to claim that the 7-7 bombings were executed by a group of radicals who were inspired by al Qaeda, but did not receive any active direction from senior al Qaeda leaders. This is now, as it was previously, demonstrably false. . . . [I]ntelligence compiled by the British indicates that the last three attempted/executed attacks in the UK were coordinated from Pakistan.
. . . The second issue concerns the future of Afghanistan. The Taliban, al Qaeda and their allies are once again resurgent. Their ability to attack coalition forces, who are trying to stabilize the broken nation, has steadily grown. There is no doubt that the safe haven our terrorist enemies enjoy on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan allows them to orchestrate these attacks with increasing efficacy.
. . . The third issue, which is in no way less important than the first two, concerns ongoing terrorist attacks against India. . . .
[B. Raman]: . . .The most likely scenario as of today is that Musharraf will continue to be in power; he will manipulate the next elections, with the US closing its eyes, in order to ensure the victory of the parties loyal to him; will continue to use terrorism against India while making a pretence of stopping it; will continue to keep the Neo Taliban alive and kicking hoping one day it could come back to power in Kabul and carry out the Pakistani agenda; and will extend co-operation to the US in its operations against Al Qaeda to the extent he can do so without undermining his own position. Jihadi terrorism originating from Pakistan will continue in the short term.
I have always held the view that if there is an act of jihadi terrorism anywhere in the world in which a WMD is used, it would have almost certainly originated from Pakistan or Chechnya. In Pakistan, the military has effective control over the nuclear establishment and I visualise no danger of the jihadis getting control of the nuclear material. The danger at present is of Al Qaeda or other organisations getting hold of WMD-capable material from elsewhere and managing to convert them into usable weapons with the knowledge, expertise and experience of serving and retired Pakistani scientists. . . .
Retired senior officers of the Army and the ISI . . . are among those actively assisting the Al Qaeda, the Neo Taliban and the jihadi organisations active in India. They share two qualities---a hatred of India and an equally strong hatred of the US. . . . Similarly, there must be many retired scientists who must be in touch with the jihadis---either for money or out of ideological affinity. I am most worried about them. . . .
[Dr. Rohan Gunaratna]: After the US-led coalition intervention in Afghanistan, the ground zero of terrorism has moved to the FATA in Pakistan. Pakistan needs all the support the international community can give to fight both terrorism - but more importantly - extremism.
Musharraf is America's most pivotal ally in the fight against terrorism. More than 25% of detainees in Gitmo were captured in Pakistan by the government agencies of Pakistan — especially ISI and IB working with the CIA. If Musharraf is assassinated, he will be succeeded by a group of officers that will follow the same line Musharraf is towing. I have no doubt that the nuclear infrastructure of Pakistan will be protected. To ensure that the anti-jihadist leaders like Musharraf remains in power and survives in Pakistan, the West must work even more closely with Pakistan and support Islamabad.
[Daveed Gartenstein Ross]: . . . While I have great respect for Rohan Gunaratna, I am nowhere near as confident as him that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will be safeguarded against extremists. . . .
Also alarming is Musharraf’s increasing inability to effectively direct his own military. Adnkronos International recently reported that Musharraf was unable to order an air strike on a madrassa in his own capital city because his air force refused to carry out the attack.
Overall, there are no good answers to the problem of Pakistan at present. . . . [W]e need to carefully think through the perilous situations that may arise in the future, including worst-case scenarios. The U.S. had not even contemplated the destruction of Iraq’s Askariya mosque that occurred in February 2006. We were thus unprepared for the sectarian violence that subsequently engulfed the country. The consequences of being caught by surprise in Pakistan could be even deadlier.
Schippert: . . . It's not just nuclear warheads, though [they're] clearly the most dangerous. Pakistan is a state with myriad WMD technological capability and human resources that exists within a spiralling nexus of terrorist activity.
. . . While the regime in Tehran must be changed, the Musharraf regime in Pakistan must be preserved, regardless how messy the former or how imperfect the latter. The alternatives for Pakistan are clearly uncertain. . . . Uncertainty and nuclear weapons are a dangerous proposition. . . .
Joscelyn: In terms of preserving Musharraf’s regime, there are a number of key issues. But, two of them stand out: (1) Senior U.S. officials need to convince Musharraf that appeasement is a feckless and dangerous strategy[;] and (2) [the] U.S. and Musharraf’s regime need to work together to limit the reach of Musharraf’s most deadly rivals, who also pose a significant threat to U.S. interests. . . .
As for the first tactic, . . . Musharraf has sought to quell his opposition and maintain power by simply conceding large portions of territory to the Islamists. But this short-sighted strategy only pushes off a potentially more deadly confrontation into the future, and is not a real strategy for maintaining long-term, pro-Musharraf stability inside Pakistan.
Some will no doubt argue that Musharraf’s hand has been forced, and he has no other realistic options. The thinking is that Musharraf’s tenuous grip on power can only be preserved by avoiding a direct confrontation with his enemies, thus his concessions are necessary. This is rubbish. These concessions have not dissuaded Musharraf’s enemies from trying to assassinate him. Nor have they prevented his enemies from orchestrating further attacks against Western targets from what was formerly Pakistani soil. And the West cannot afford to make excuses for these concessions.
As for the second tactic, it makes no sense for Musharraf to pretend that he can ignore the duplicity of current and former senior ISI and military officers. . . .
Raman: In the Pakistan Army, the moderates are still in an overwhelming majority among the serving officers in the ranks of Majors-General and Lts-General. They should be the constituency of the US, instead of keeping its attention focussed exclusively on Musharraf. The US should interact actively with the moderate officers, who are unhappy with growing jihadisation in the bordering areas. The proportion of fundamentalist/jihadi elements in the ranks of NCOs is about one-third of the total strength. This is not an insignificant number. . . .
How to neutralise them and how to ensure that recruitment to the army at least in future keeps out potential jihadi elements is another issue that should engage US attention. . . .
There has to be a whole basket of measures---short, medium and long-term--- to weed out the jihadi elements in Pakistan and sterilise them. Neither the CIA nor India's R&AW has the faintest idea about the extent of penetration of jihadi elements into Pakistan's scientific community. The two should undertake a crash joint operation to identify the penetration of jihadi elements into the scientific community and examine ways of neutralising them. So much needs to be done. . . .
Gunaratna: Yesterday I flew back from Karachi, after a week in Islamabad and Lahore. I was a part of the Pakistan-ASEAN dialogue. As student of Pakistan for over 15 years, my observations are as follows.
First, the jihadist threat, intertwined with Islamist politics, is growing. Musharraf has been effective [in dismantling] Al Qaeda and foreign groups but the local jihadist groups have survived. Politically, Musharraf has done a lot - he can do more, provided the West continues to support him.
Second, Pakistan has not witnessed such a high rate of economic growth ever before., If their economy grows at this current pace, in 15 years, Pakistan will have an economy in par with the East Asian Tigers.
Third, the West must invest more in Pakistan to ensure that its economy will grow at the current rate. This will also strengthen the hand of Musharraf and his long list of "likes" to succeed him. . . .
Pakistan's future is determined not only by the Pakistani and its leaders but by the international community. US assistance has helped in a major way. . . .
Gartenstein-Ross: One problem with U.S. counterterrorism policy is that it tends to be reactive rather than pro-active. . . . It seems that this panel has emerged with a consensus that Pakistan is currently one of the two most critical areas in the global war on terror because its terrorist safe haven significantly helps extremist forces in Afghanistan and because of the possibility of a “nightmare scenario” if Musharraf falls from power. (The other critical area is Iraq, which is already receiving much attention from high levels of government.) Hopefully policymakers, analysts, and other officials will be pro-active in Pakistan rather than standing by idly as the situation in that country worsens.
I said before that there isn’t a good answer to the situation in Pakistan, but the suggestions put forward by this panel would make a far better starting point for a comprehensive U.S. policy than the efforts that are currently being undertaken. I think the most important recommendation is B. Raman’s focus on the informational approach: U.S. and Indian intelligence do need to undertake “a crash joint operation,” as he puts it—not just to identify jihadist elements in Pakistan’s scientific community, but also in other areas that can help us better understand Pakistan.
What emerges from this panel, I believe, is a four-pronged approach. The first prong, as I already discussed, is informational: we need to learn more, as it will make us more effective in dealing with Pakistan. The second prong is diplomatic, as Thomas Joscelyn suggests. We need to convince Musharraf to move away from the course of appeasement that he has been following, as it jeopardizes the U.S.’s security, and ultimately jeopardizes Pakistan as well. (In this regard, Pakistan’s signing of the new Bajaur Accord is not a good sign.) The third prong is engaging the internal dynamics of Pakistan. This includes efforts to weed out jihadist elements (in the Pakistani military, the ISI, and beyond), and by engaging moderate officers within the Pakistani military as B. Raman suggests. The fourth prong, as Rohan Gunaratna suggests, is economic: helping to ensure continued growth of the Pakistani economy.
These four steps would comprise a far more sensible Pakistan policy than our current efforts.