MORE ON SPREADING DEMOCRACY [Andy McCarthy]
I’ve been following with great interest the discussion about the President’s belief in the innate yearning for liberty, which is one major premise of our ongoing democratizing project – a project on which I am, I suppose, a sympathetic skeptic. If I could broaden the subject, though, I want to take issue with another of the premises: the notion that a democratic world necessarily makes the United States safer from terrorism.
It may be true that democracies do not historically make war on one another. But if you accept that international terrorism – rather than the outbreak of a conventional war between sovereigns – is our biggest security challenge today, I’m not sure where democratizing gets you.
Terror networks are not only stateless, they are exceedingly good at converting the liberties available in democratic societies to their advantage. (It is in many ways easier to plan a terror attack in a free country than a police state – and there is nothing like the ACLU in, say, China.) The 9/11 hijackers plotted for two years in both Germany and here. London, Madrid, Paris, Amsterdam, etc. –they are all hotspots.
Also, as we know from experience past and present, democratizing is both expensive and exhausting. If, for example, the investment in Iraq sapped our resolve to deal earlier and more aggressively with, say, Iran and Syria, that is a cost that has to be weighed against whatever degree we are safer than we would be if we had toppled Saddam but not dug in to democratize the place.
Don’t get me wrong. This is not a paean to realism. I do believe spreading American values is something we should, even must, do. And if democracies don’t make war against each other, that is a huge upside – maybe even a dispositive one – even if democracies don’t necessarily reduce the amount of terrorism. I have just never found very persuasive the claim that more democracy necessarily means less terrorism.
RE: SPREADING DEMOCRACY [John Derbyshire]
Andy: You are of course right that open societies are fertile soil for terrorism. The War on Terror, though, is not really a war to stamp out terrorism, a thing that probably can't be done, as our leaders very likely know. It is a war on terrorists getting nukes. ("WMD" if you like, but that is really just a synonym for nukes. Chemical and biological terrorism, in the present state of the dark arts, are minor threats by comparison.) Nukes can only be made by biggish, stable--whether under dictatorship or law--well-organized nations. Any such nation friendly to terrorists, hostile to us, and looking as if it is on the way to getting nukes, demands action.
The question is: What action? My answer would be, has always been: Attack them, smash up their assets, kill their leaders if you can, cripple their military. Then leave them in rubble and chaos. They're not going to be making any nukes in that condition. Mission accomplished. That was what I hoped we would do to Iraq, and why I supported the war. It is what I believe we should now do to Iran. The reduced-to-rubble nation might indeed "breed terrorists"; but then, as you pointed out, so might New Zealand or Spain. Rubble nations are not a threat to us. Africa has a score of them; none threatens us.
The administration has taken another course, one of "spreading American values," "building democracy," and so on. This won't work. It will end in tears. Any leaders of Iraq installed under any system we set up will be lynched by ululating mobs within a month of our departure. We can't export our system, even to small, cheap, near places like Haiti (where we have been trying for nigh on a century).
This is bad news for the many people living in the sphere of barbarism who would like a quiet, middle-class, law-governed, Western style of life, but it's not especially bad news for **us**, if we can just acknowledge it frankly and act accordingly.
Incidentally, the best argument for the proposition that democracies don't make war on each other is Spencer Weart's Never at War. Weart patiently chronicles every counterexample you could come up with, trying to prove that proposition, mainly by slicing'n'dicing the definition of "democracy" to make it fit. I wasn't 100 percent convinced; but it is clear at any rate that free nations go to war with each other only grudgingly, under exceptional circumstances, and never with the annihilatory total-war mindset.
RE: RE: SPREADING DEMOCRACY [Andy McCarthy]
Derb, I’m not as pessimistic as you are about the outcome in Iraq – although I do think the worst-case scenario you lay out is not nearly as unlikely as is cheerily assumed by many of the war’s supporters (among whom I, like you, count myself). I also agree, completely, that the “war on terror” has never been a war on terrorism, but rather against militant Islam. I was delighted to hear the President say that expressly on Tuesday night (especially in the teeth of the interest group pressure K-Lo noted, here). But I wish we had been clearer on that from the beginning – mention of the enemy’s name was pretty much verboten until the last year or so.
It’s not possible to wipe out terrorism. It is, however, possible to decimate a particular terror network. We’ve done a good job on this with al Qaeda – far better than we did from 1993-2001 – but less good, I think, than we could have done if we had been more committed to what you identify as the top priority – stopping terrorists from getting nukes. That can be accomplished only by (a) killing and capturing terrorists, and (b) making rogue regimes understand that they will pay dearly for abetting terrorists. Which is to say, it can be accomplished only by actions that meet the rhetoric of the Bush Doctrine.
I am not convinced that the Bush Doctrine is helped much, if at all, by spreading democracy or American values. Pursuit of the latter cannot help but narrow options and drain energy from the goal of crushing a terror network and punishing its enabling regimes.
For example, in addition to building nukes and sponsoring Hezbollah, Iran has harbored and otherwise assisted al Qaeda leaders since our military operations in Afghanistan began. It has also been actively allied with the so-called “insurgency” throughout Iraq operations. There is no question that dealing militarily with Iran would be a far more complex proposition today than it would have been in, say, November 2001. (I am not suggesting that it would have been easy then.) But if your top priority becomes democratizing rather than enforcing the Bush Doctrine, then you have to stay your hand at times when you might otherwise act aggressively, for fear of what aggression might do to the political balance you’re trying to achieve. That may be a defensible choice, but I don’t think it gets you closer to stopping terrorists from getting nukes. Instead, it gives al Qaeda some soft places to land and it only encourages the Irans of the world.
The type of democratizing and value-spreading I’m talking about is a very long-term project – decades long. The election last week, for example, showed that the Palestinians – who have been weaned on hatred of, and dreams of annihilating, Israel – are at least a generation away from the culture and institutions that must antecede democracy. They do not even accept the civilized premise that blowing up innocents in sneak attacks is not legitimate warfare under any circumstances – they deem it heroic behavior. On the other hand, there is an urgency to keeping militant Islam away from nukes that cannot be over-stated. (As Judge Posner observed in this TNR piece a week ago, “Washington, D.C., … could be destroyed by an atomic bomb the size of a suitcase.”) Priorities …