Daniel Pipes:
Washington's long delay has cost Americans heavily, starting with thousands dead and hundreds of billions of dollars, then going on to poisoning American politics. . . .
Worse, occupying Iraqi cities has a yet-incalculable but frightening long-term impact. More than any other factor, taking responsibility for Iraqi cities discredited George W. Bush and built the groundswell of support that swept the furthest left-wing politician ever to the presidency. . . . Americans for many decades will likely pay for mistakes made in Iraq.
I agree with Pipes (who recommended this move in 2003, long before I had an opinion) that the withdrawal is years overdue, for all the reasons he gives. But I'm not sure.
First, Iraq would've cost the GOP the presidency regardless of when our forces withdrew, because Iraq was and remains destined for carnage, and Bush would've been blamed whenever it occurred. Iraq is, as Pipes writes, "a historically violent country . . . replete with corruption, tension, hatred, and desire for revenge." (AP yesterday: "Bombs killed nearly 60 people in Iraq on Thursday in the worst violence since U.S. combat troops withdrew from urban areas last week[.]") A withdrawal in 2003 might have caused Iraq to collapse (or implode, or explode) before the 2004 elections, in which case Kerry would likely have won. Basically, the decision to invade rendered almost inevitable a Democrat victory.
(Still, we were right to invade.)
Second, as Ralph Peters noted last week, al-Qaeda chose to make their stand against us in Iraq, and we crushed them there. A frequently fierce critic of our conduct of the war, Peters nonetheless concludes, "That single development made Iraq worthwhile."
Third, and this may read as armchair-generalship at its worst (I've never served), we now have not just the world's most powerful military, but also the world's most skilled and experienced large military. I feel that more than 4,000 dead and (by this count) more than 30,000 wounded is too high a price for what we gained, but events could demonstrate otherwise.
Finally, and this is more speculation, did Iraq's example give Middle Eastern Muslims a taste for freedom? Christopher Hitchens hypothesizes a connection between "the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime, and the subsequent holding of competitive elections in which many rival Iraqi Shiite parties took part," and "the astonishing events in Iran" recently. Was our troops' continued presence in Iraq's cities necessary for those elections to occur? Maybe, and maybe.
Again, I think Pipes is right. We spent too much money, we fought among ourselves too bitterly, and, most important, too many troops lost their lives to justify our decision to retain control of Iraq after we'd removed Saddam. History may decide differently, though.